By Eben Harrell
Thursday, Jan. 14, 2010
Source: Time
Last January a team of scientists at the World Health Organization (WHO) published a study in the British medical journal the Lancet making the audacious claim that the tools already exist to end the AIDS epidemic. Doctors have long noted that antiretrovirals — the drugs commonly used to treat HIV — are so successful at suppressing the number of viruses in an infected patient’s blood that they can render a person no longer contagious. Using mathematical models, the researchers claimed that universal HIV testing followed by the immediate treatment of newly infected patients with antiretroviral drugs could eliminate the disease from even the most heavily infected populations within 10 years.
But a new study in the journal Science suggests that such thinking is too good to be true. And the problem is drug resistance. Extensive antiretroviral treatment can result in the development and transmission of drug-resistant strains of HIV — something the Lancet study did not consider. In the new study, published on Thursday, a team of scientists from the University of California, the University of Tennessee and the University of Ottawa analyzed data from San Francisco, where antiretroviral drugs have been extensively prescribed to HIV patients since AZT was introduced in 1987. In that city, drug resistance has grown steadily and, according to the team’s models, drug-resistant infections are now on the verge of spiking.
“According to our models, drug resistance in San Francisco will increase by around 30% in the next three to five years,” says Sally Blower, a professor at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA. “That will present its own challenges to that city, but the most significant implications of our work are for countries where treatment is just being rolled out. San Francisco is always the canary in the mine.”
Current treatment guidelines do not call for the prescription of antiretroviral drugs until there is evidence of progressive damage to the immune system. But in the wake of last year’s Lancet study, some health experts have begun promoting a “test and treat” policy for populations with high HIV rates, as in major Western cities and parts of the developing world. Test and treat calls for the immediate treatment of all HIV-infected patients to reduce transmission rates. In November, WHO held a conference in Geneva to discuss whether the policy should be rolled out through its various agency programs. According to the team behind the Science study, however, that could prove disastrous. “Test and treat has been designed based on overly simplistic modeling. It is misguided and could lead to very serious public-health problems in resource-constrained countries,” Blower says.
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Read more: Time